Just 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, find themselves just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. History, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team which has strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear strangely fragile – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
