Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
